The lifetime and failure probability of the power devices strongly depend on their operation conditions. Population growth followed by an increasing demand for power supply and space requirement gives rise to the development of underground and indoor substations. The simulation results show that the proposed model clearly improves the accuracy of failure analysis and can be used for thermal and ventilation design of transformer room. By incorporating the three-dimensional thermal model into the service life-dependent and temperature-dependent model, the failure rate of each spatial point in power transformer could be calculated according to Arrhenius theory and Weibull distribution. Cooling strategies and mutual heating effect of power equipment are considered for an accurate temperature distribution prediction. The proposed thermal model is established with computational fluid dynamics for ventilation calculation and heat generation equations for power device simulation. This article firstly introduces a spatial and temporal related failure model based on three-dimensional thermal simulations of transformer and the related environment. Conventionally, transformer failure rate is calculated with hot spot temperature induced from IEEE empirical equations. Temperature is a key factor for failure analysis of power transformers. IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution.IET Electrical Systems in Transportation.IET Cyber-Physical Systems: Theory & Applications.IET Collaborative Intelligent Manufacturing.CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology.
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